Saturday, September 6, 2008
Is Anwar Ibrahim unstoppable?
Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim's landslide victory in the Permatang Pauh by-election on August 26 strongly suggests that Malaysians remain in a mood for change five months after a political tsunami swept the country. The writer examines five key questions that may determine the country's future.
Is Anwar Ibrahim unstoppable?
With the big margin he attained in the by-election, it does look as if Barisan Nasional (BN) will have a hard time stopping him. But then, as Anwar himself said, a week is a long time in politics, meaning that nothing is definite.He is stoppable as a person, but I think what has happened to him is that he has become the focus of a lot of hope for Malaysians disillusioned with the BN system. Because he is a wily politician — or a chameleon, as critics like to say — he has been able to remake himself in the image of the reform movement that his arrest 10 years ago inspired and that developed more intensely than he could have expected. That movement has aligned itself with other oppositional forces and that new combined force now places him as its front man. In turn, he has become indispensable to that force.Understood that way, Anwar does look unstoppable. The long-term way BN and the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) can take the wind out of his sail is to reform themselves radically, and in the process, change Malaysian politics to the extent that the polarised situation that makes someone such as Anwar so iconic disappear, or weaken. As long as BN refuses to change, the situation that created the strong opposition that adopts Anwar as its front man will continue.His court case relating to a sodomy charge, starting on September 10, is a big worry for the opposition. A lot of resources will be focused on defending Anwar, and on weakening the prosecution's case, including proving that the charge against him is politically motivated.
What is Mr Abdullah's future?
History will perceive Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as the accidental politician and will forgive him for many of his failures because of that. But for the moment, many Malaysians on both sides are simply exasperated by his weak leadership and his inability to adapt to changes. No one mistakes his reticence for astuteness any longer.His time is up. He has to realise how critical reforms actually are to the future of the country.If Anwar's attempt at toppling the government does not materialise, then the attention will turn to Umno's general assembly in December. Many Umno leaders are not willing to allow Abdullah to bide his time while they run the risk of being sidelined forever. One goes into politics to gain power, and if the power pyramid that one is part of is sinking, then at some point, one decides that it is every man for himself.What about Umno's future?One day quite soon, Malaysians will learn to see political coalitions as temporary solutions to imbalances in power, and not as monolithic and eternal beings that become a goal in themselves. There are no permanent allies and no permanent enemies.It will be nearly impossible for Umno to regain its former glory. That glory depended on the BN model. Today, it is like the Kuomintang of Taiwan in the '80s. It must go through a radical change, and to do that, it may have to leave the seat of power for a while. Its members have to realise that Malaysia's wellbeing is not necessarily Umno's wellbeing.Even if the party loses power, it can return, but in a new shape and in new alliances. The worst-case scenario is that Umno may go the way of the Communist Party in Yugoslavia and disappear. The fear then is that the country will disintegrate along with it. The best-case scenario is that politics in Malaysia will mature to the extent that political opponents no longer wish destruction on each other.Losing will not be everything; winning will not be everything.From now to September 16 and December, what are the signs to look for?Abdullah presented his budget on August 29 and Parliament is now in recess until the fasting month of Ramadan is over. In the meantime, we have Wednesday to watch, when Anwar goes on trial. Should the sodomy charge be dropped, then BN admits that its tactic has backfired and it withdraws to fight another day. Should it stick, Anwar's camp will try its best to keep him out of jail.Given how Anwar was treated the last time he was in detention, his closest supporters fear that some serious harm will come to him while in jail.September 16 is the day to watch — Malaysia Day, the day 45 years ago when Sabah, Sarawak and Singapore joined the federation. Anwar chose that day as a day of reckoning because it is very symbolic to the East Malaysians who feel let down by the federal government. He promises them a better deal, a simple enough strategy.Even if Anwar cannot convince 30 BN Members of Parliament (MPs) to cross over to his side, he is expected to mark that day in a dramatic fashion. What he could do is perhaps to get some defectors to announce their intention publicly on September 16, and then hope for a snowball effect from there. He could also announce a defection by Umno MPs. Should nine of them defect, it would mean that Umno loses its majority within the ruling BN coalition. A bigger scoop would be to get a whole party to defect, threatening the existence of BN itself.Also important to watch will be the Umno's division elections next month. What support Abdullah still has will become clearer from that. The main challenger to Abdullah within Umno, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, will also be gauging his own strength during that time.
Is Anwar Ibrahim unstoppable?
With the big margin he attained in the by-election, it does look as if Barisan Nasional (BN) will have a hard time stopping him. But then, as Anwar himself said, a week is a long time in politics, meaning that nothing is definite.He is stoppable as a person, but I think what has happened to him is that he has become the focus of a lot of hope for Malaysians disillusioned with the BN system. Because he is a wily politician — or a chameleon, as critics like to say — he has been able to remake himself in the image of the reform movement that his arrest 10 years ago inspired and that developed more intensely than he could have expected. That movement has aligned itself with other oppositional forces and that new combined force now places him as its front man. In turn, he has become indispensable to that force.Understood that way, Anwar does look unstoppable. The long-term way BN and the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) can take the wind out of his sail is to reform themselves radically, and in the process, change Malaysian politics to the extent that the polarised situation that makes someone such as Anwar so iconic disappear, or weaken. As long as BN refuses to change, the situation that created the strong opposition that adopts Anwar as its front man will continue.His court case relating to a sodomy charge, starting on September 10, is a big worry for the opposition. A lot of resources will be focused on defending Anwar, and on weakening the prosecution's case, including proving that the charge against him is politically motivated.
What is Mr Abdullah's future?
History will perceive Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as the accidental politician and will forgive him for many of his failures because of that. But for the moment, many Malaysians on both sides are simply exasperated by his weak leadership and his inability to adapt to changes. No one mistakes his reticence for astuteness any longer.His time is up. He has to realise how critical reforms actually are to the future of the country.If Anwar's attempt at toppling the government does not materialise, then the attention will turn to Umno's general assembly in December. Many Umno leaders are not willing to allow Abdullah to bide his time while they run the risk of being sidelined forever. One goes into politics to gain power, and if the power pyramid that one is part of is sinking, then at some point, one decides that it is every man for himself.What about Umno's future?One day quite soon, Malaysians will learn to see political coalitions as temporary solutions to imbalances in power, and not as monolithic and eternal beings that become a goal in themselves. There are no permanent allies and no permanent enemies.It will be nearly impossible for Umno to regain its former glory. That glory depended on the BN model. Today, it is like the Kuomintang of Taiwan in the '80s. It must go through a radical change, and to do that, it may have to leave the seat of power for a while. Its members have to realise that Malaysia's wellbeing is not necessarily Umno's wellbeing.Even if the party loses power, it can return, but in a new shape and in new alliances. The worst-case scenario is that Umno may go the way of the Communist Party in Yugoslavia and disappear. The fear then is that the country will disintegrate along with it. The best-case scenario is that politics in Malaysia will mature to the extent that political opponents no longer wish destruction on each other.Losing will not be everything; winning will not be everything.From now to September 16 and December, what are the signs to look for?Abdullah presented his budget on August 29 and Parliament is now in recess until the fasting month of Ramadan is over. In the meantime, we have Wednesday to watch, when Anwar goes on trial. Should the sodomy charge be dropped, then BN admits that its tactic has backfired and it withdraws to fight another day. Should it stick, Anwar's camp will try its best to keep him out of jail.Given how Anwar was treated the last time he was in detention, his closest supporters fear that some serious harm will come to him while in jail.September 16 is the day to watch — Malaysia Day, the day 45 years ago when Sabah, Sarawak and Singapore joined the federation. Anwar chose that day as a day of reckoning because it is very symbolic to the East Malaysians who feel let down by the federal government. He promises them a better deal, a simple enough strategy.Even if Anwar cannot convince 30 BN Members of Parliament (MPs) to cross over to his side, he is expected to mark that day in a dramatic fashion. What he could do is perhaps to get some defectors to announce their intention publicly on September 16, and then hope for a snowball effect from there. He could also announce a defection by Umno MPs. Should nine of them defect, it would mean that Umno loses its majority within the ruling BN coalition. A bigger scoop would be to get a whole party to defect, threatening the existence of BN itself.Also important to watch will be the Umno's division elections next month. What support Abdullah still has will become clearer from that. The main challenger to Abdullah within Umno, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, will also be gauging his own strength during that time.
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